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Thread: Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

  1. #1
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    Default Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

    EMERGENCY: DO THE MATHS
    We define emergency (E) as the product of risk and urgency. Risk (R) is defined by insurers as probability (p) multiplied by damage (D). Urgency (U) is defined in emergency situations as reaction time to an alert (?) divided by the intervention time left to avoid a bad outcome (T). Thus:
    E = R × U = p × D × ? / T
    The situation is an emergency if both risk and urgency are high. If reaction time is longer than the intervention time left (??/?T?>?1), we have lost control.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0
    Just stick to the idea that science tests falsifiable hypotheses to destruction.

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  3. #2
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    Default Re: Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

    This is what the smart insurance companies are doing. Insurance companies underwrite individuals and groups [like corporations etc] to buffer them against risk. So to continue to operate as a business, the insurance company has to make sure that it's costs [payouts against claims, administration, etc are LESS than revenues from fees and premiums paid by subscribers to their insurance policies.
    At the same time, their scale of fees must be competitive. So they have to keep costs low. This includes a realistic risk assessment, among other things. So climate change denial-ism would send them broke. And if the con people out of their claims [do not honour valid claims], then they can get a bad reputation, which may also affect profits and market share.
    Just stick to the idea that science tests falsifiable hypotheses to destruction.

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  5. #3
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    Default Re: Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

    You are spot on Puppy.

    Click on the image below to view the article:
    ABC.NET.AU
    $30k for flood insurance? Industry defends high premiums
    The peak body representing Australia's insurance industry defends reports of premiums costing up to $30,000 a year for residents in flood-affected parts of northern NSW.


    I remember hearing an interview on Radio National about this. The Lismore resident's flood insurance premium went from $3k a year to $30k a year. $30k a year! Who can afford to pay that? In Lismore? Hey, i like Lismore, beautiful river and a hop, step and float down the road from Nimbin, great spot but it isn't exactly teeming with the rich and famous. At a guess, i doubt more than 3 or 4 percent of Lismore's residents could afford to fork out $30k a year for flood insurance. They just go without and risk losing everything.
    What’s the use of a fine house if you haven’t a tolerable planet to put it on - Henry David Thoreau

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  7. #4
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    Default Re: Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

    I shudder to think what my home insurance is going to be like next year.

    It took a big enough hike this year. Around $1200, up from $800, with the most basic Woolworths insurance I could find.

    Major insurers are double that.

    Living too bloody close to the bush.

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  9. #5
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    Default Re: Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

    During last week's fires i heard warnings being issued for residents of small towns to get to the nearest big city. I don't think i've heard that exact warning before. Anyway, if fire and flood, and up north cyclone and storm, insurance is going to rise to a point where it simply isnt feasible anymore to buy it, does that mean we'll see an increasing migration to cities?

    Internal climate refugees driven to cities by insurance companies. Hmmm...well, i can't think of anything that could go wrong there.
    What’s the use of a fine house if you haven’t a tolerable planet to put it on - Henry David Thoreau

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    Default Re: Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

    The bloody Libs/Nats are supposed to be "the party of business" apparently they are not listening to the insurance companies either?
    Just stick to the idea that science tests falsifiable hypotheses to destruction.

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  13. #7
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    Default Re: Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

    Quote Darwinsbulldog said View Post
    The bloody Libs/Nats are supposed to be "the party of business" apparently they are not listening to the insurance companies either?
    Not sure insurance companies care all that much, comfortable in the knowledge that if or when they're simultaneously hit with tens of thousands of claims they couldn't possibly honour, the federal treasury will bail them out, so all good mate. Or they'll just declare insolvency, award the board and the ceo seven figure severance packages and there's nothing to see here. Fuck the share holders, and a good belly laugh for the policy holders. That's just how we roll. Insurance is standover racket.
    What’s the use of a fine house if you haven’t a tolerable planet to put it on - Henry David Thoreau

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    Default Re: Climate Change Emergency -Do The Math

    "You pay our protection."
    "A professorship in Theology should have no place in our institution."

    Thomas Jefferson when founding his University of Virginia (in A Universe From Nothing, Lawrence Krauss)

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